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Chapter 11: The Winners Curse (Leverage)

  January 14, 2011. Jamsil High School. Temperature: -15°C.

  The radiator in the back of Class 2-3 was broken. The students sat huddled in their padded jackets, their breath pluming in the frigid air like cigarette smoke.

  Kang Min-jun stared at the analog clock on the wall. 1:58 PM.

  In two minutes, the Korea Exchange (KRX) disclosure system would update. Daegwang E&C was scheduled to release its preliminary Q4 2010 earnings report.

  Min-jun’s hands were sweating inside his pockets.

  He had 1.5 million won—literally the last liquid cash in the Umbra account—sitting in Put Options that expired in three weeks. Currently, those options were trading at 45 won. He was down 10%. Daegwang E&C stock was hovering at 148,000 won.

  If the earnings were good, the stock would rally, and his options would expire worthless. Zero. If that happened, he would be left with his locked-up Hynix shares and Bitcoin, but zero operating cash. He wouldn't be able to fund Hermes.

  "Hey, Min-jun," Kim Si-woo, his desk neighbor, whispered, poking him with a mechanical pencil. "Do you have the answers for the English homework? I'll trade you a sausage bread."

  Min-jun didn't turn. "Not now, Si-woo."

  "Come on, just the multiple choice..."

  1:59 PM.

  Min-jun closed his eyes. He visualized the balance sheet of Daegwang E&C. He knew the "Libya Deal" was a poison pill. To win the bid against Samsung and Hyundai, Daegwang had slashed their margin to -5%. They assumed oil prices would drop, lowering the cost of asphalt. Instead, oil had stayed high. They were bleeding cash in the desert.

  2:00 PM.

  Min-jun refreshed the browser on his phone hidden under the desk. The page loaded agonizingly slow on the 3G network.

  [Disclosure] Daegwang E&C (000xxx) - Operating Profit/Loss (Provisional)

  He clicked it.

  Revenue: 4.2 Trillion KRW (Inline). Operating Profit: -120 Billion KRW (Shock). Net Income: -450 Billion KRW (Shock).

  Status: TURN TO RED.

  "Got you," Min-jun exhaled, the tension snapping like a rubber band.

  The classroom was silent, filled with the scratching of pencils. But in the invisible world of high-frequency trading, a nuclear bomb had just detonated.

  Min-jun opened the HTS app. Daegwang E&C stock froze for 3 seconds. The "VI" (Volatility Interruption) kicked in. Then, it reopened.

  148,000 -> 139,000 (-6%).

  Panic selling began. The "Winner's Curse" was real. Analysts who had slapped a "BUY" rating on the stock just last week were now scrambling to issue "SELL" reports to save their careers. Institutions dumped blocks of shares.

  139,000 -> 135,000 (-8.7%).

  Min-jun switched to his ELW (Equity Linked Warrant) tab. Derivatives are a lever. When the underlying asset moves 1%, the option can move 10%, 20%, or 50% depending on the "Delta" and "Gamma."

  Min-jun’s Put Options (Strike 140,000) were "Out of the Money" five minutes ago. Now, they were deep "In the Money."

  Option Price: 45 won -> 650 won.

  It was a 1,300% gain in three minutes. But he didn't sell. Not yet. The panic hadn't peaked. The retail investors—the "Ants"—were just waking up to the news. They would panic sell in the next hour.

  2:30 PM. Daegwang E&C hit the lower limit (Price Floor) of -15%. Price: 125,500 KRW.

  Min-jun’s options were now screaming. Option Price: 1,450 won.

  He had bought 30,000 contracts at 50 won. Cost: 1.5 Million. Current Value: 43.5 Million.

  Unauthorized tale usage: if you spot this story on Amazon, report the violation.

  "Si-woo," Min-jun turned to his friend, a genuine smile breaking across his face.

  "Yeah?" Si-woo flinched, startled by the sudden attention.

  "I don't need the sausage bread. But I'll buy you a pizza. A whole one. After school."

  "Really? Why?"

  "Because," Min-jun looked at the red numbers on his screen (in Korea, red means profit). "I just robbed a bank."

  4:00 PM. Zero G PC Bang.

  Min-jun sat with Grandpa Byung-ho. The atmosphere was electric. They had liquidated the position at 3:15 PM, just before the market closed.

  Sold 30,000 Contracts at 1,380 KRW. Total Proceeds: 41,400,000 KRW. Net Profit: ~39.9 Million KRW.

  In one afternoon, Min-jun had made what his father would earn in two years of driving a taxi.

  "Is this illegal?" Byung-ho asked, staring at the screen, his hand trembling as he held a cigarette. "Tell me the truth, Min-jun. Did we do something wrong? This is too much money for clicking a button."

  "It's the price of risk, Grandpa," Min-jun said, though his own heart was still racing. "We bet on a collapse when everyone else was betting on a boom. We were the insurance company for the market. And the house burned down."

  Min-jun opened his master ledger.

  [UMBRA INVESTMENT - Q1 2011 STATUS]

  


      


  •   Cash (Liquid): 41,400,000 KRW (From Option Sale).

      


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  •   Stock (H-Semicon): ~21,000,000 KRW (Locked).

      


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  •   Crypto: 5,000 BTC (Dormant).

      


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  •   Total Equity: ~62,400,000 KRW.

      


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  Min-jun looked at the cash figure. 41.4 Million. It was tight. He needed 30 million to launch Hermes. That would leave him with only 11 million won as a buffer. If anything went wrong with the family, or if the taxi broke down...

  "It has to be enough," Min-jun whispered.

  He picked up his phone. He dialed a number he had saved months ago.

  "Yeoboseyo?" A groggy voice answered. It was Oh Jae-il.

  "Jae-il Hyung. Wake up."

  "Min-jun? It's... it's the middle of the day. I was coding."

  "Check your bank account in ten minutes. I'm sending the Series A tranche."

  "Series A? Wait, you secured funding? From who?"

  "From Daegwang E&C," Min-jun smirked. "They were kind enough to donate to our cause via the derivatives market."

  "How much?"

  "30 Million Won. Cash."

  Silence on the other end. Then, the sound of a chair scraping and a keyboard clattering. "30 million? I can buy the servers. I can... wait, I can lease a small warehouse in Gwangju-si. But Min-jun, that's barely enough for three months of burn rate."

  "I know. So don't burn it," Min-jun commanded. "Register the company name. Hermes Logistics. I want the prototype routing engine running on real trucks by March."

  "Real trucks? We can't afford a fleet."

  "We don't buy trucks," Min-jun said. "We rent the empty space in existing trucks. The 'Yongdal' (freight) drivers who return empty after a delivery. We pay them to carry our boxes on the return leg. We utilize the 'Dead Space' in the logistics network."

  "Efficiency arbitrage..." Jae-il muttered. "That's... that's brilliant. We don't need assets. We just need the data."

  "Exactly. Get to work, CTO."

  Min-jun hung up. He transferred 30 million won to Jae-il. Remaining Cash: 11.4 Million KRW.

  He transferred 1 million to his grandfather as a "Dividend." Remaining Cash: 10.4 Million KRW.

  "What do I do with this?" Byung-ho asked, holding the stack of cash.

  "Buy a new suit. A good one. Italian fabric," Min-jun said. "And maybe fix the boiler. It's cold."

  January 20, 2011. The Kimchi Jjigae Shop.

  Min-jun sat across from his father, Kang Dong-wook. The taxi driver looked tired. His skin was rough, weathered by exhaust fumes and stress. He was eating his stew quickly, slurping the soup as if he didn't have time to taste it.

  "Dad," Min-jun said.

  "Hmm?" Dong-wook didn't look up. "Eat your meat. You're growing."

  "The taxi company. Is the engine still rattling?"

  Dong-wook paused. He put down his spoon. He sighed, a heavy sound that seemed to carry the weight of the world. "It's fine. I put some oil in it. It'll last until summer."

  Min-jun knew it wouldn't. It would die in March, on a rainy Tuesday, stranding his father on the Banpo Bridge.

  "Dad. I found a part-time job."

  "Part-time? You're a student! You need to study! Did you quit the academy?"

  "No. I'm... tutoring. Math. For the younger kids." (Technically true, he helped Si-woo). "I made some money."

  Min-jun slid an envelope across the greasy table. Inside was 2 million won.

  Dong-wook looked at the envelope. He opened it. His eyes widened. "Min-jun-ah. Did you... steal this?"

  "No! I told you, I tutor rich kids in Gangnam. They pay well."

  "2 million won? For math?"

  "I'm very good at math," Min-jun said softly.

  Dong-wook stared at his son. He looked at the money. His hands, rough and scarred, hovered over the envelope. He wanted to refuse. His pride as a father screamed at him to throw it back, to say 'I provide for this family.'

  But the debt collectors were calling. The credit card was maxed out. The engine was rattling.

  Dong-wook's shoulders slumped. He looked smaller, suddenly. "I... I will pay you back. When the bonus comes."

  "It's not a loan, Dad. It's... rent. For living in your house."

  Dong-wook wiped his eyes quickly, pretending it was the steam from the stew. "Eat," he said, his voice thick. "Eat the meat. I'm full."

  Min-jun watched his father push the pork slices into his bowl. In his past life, Min-jun had hated his father's poverty. He had blamed him for his weakness. Now, he saw the sacrifice.

  I bought options, Min-jun thought. But you bought me time. You worked yourself to death so I could go to school.

  Min-jun ate the pork. It tasted better than the steak at the finest restaurant in Yeouido.

  [TRANSACTION LOG]

  


      


  •   Date: Jan 14, 2011

      


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  •   Instrument: Daegwang E&C Put Warrant

      


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  •   Action: SELL TO CLOSE

      


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  •   Exit Price: 1,380 KRW (Avg)

      


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  •   Profit: +39.9 Million KRW (+2,660%)

      


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  •   Capital Allocation:

      


        


    •   30M KRW -> Hermes Logistics (Seed Funding).

        


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    •   2M KRW -> Dad (Grant).

        


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    •   1M KRW -> Grandpa (Dividend).

        


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    •   Reserve Cash: ~8.4 Million KRW.

        


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