When Wen Shan finished his story, the secret chamber seemed to freeze over.

  Silence reigned so completely that a falling needle might have been heard.

  Expressions varied across the gathered cultivators. Some frowned deeply, lost in thought. Others looked utterly baffled, as though they could not comprehend how the tale related to their current predicament.

  “What’s there to switch?”

  At last, a disciple of the Divine Iron Camp broke the silence, his voice rough and blunt.

  “If the merchant has already opened one empty chest, then of the remaining two, one has the sheep and one doesn’t. The odds are still fifty-fifty, aren’t they? If it’s the same either way, what difference does switching make?”

  His words immediately drew agreement.

  “Exactly!” a disciple from the Knights’ Alliance chimed in. “Isn’t this identical to our situation? Three wrong orbs have been eliminated. The remaining Wood and Earth Orbs each have a fifty percent chance. If I stick with my original choice, I still have a fifty percent chance of being right. But if I switch, I might throw away the correct answer I already picked. Wouldn’t that be a loss?”

  “I still don’t understand, Junior Brother Wen Shan,” a cultivator from Hundred Apricot Grove said thoughtfully. “What are you trying to tell us with this story? Is there some hidden principle we’ve yet to grasp?”

  Voices rose again.

  Most leaned toward not switching, convinced that when probabilities were equal, steadfastness was the wiser path.

  Perhaps this was a test of Dao-heart.

  Even Senior Sister’s eyes flickered with uncertainty.

  Yet she did not turn to the arguing disciples.

  Instead, her gaze settled upon the expressionless girl.

  “Xiu Xiu,” she asked quietly, “should we switch?”

  Huang Xiu Xiu’s hollow eyes met hers.

  Without hesitation:

  “We should.”

  The debates ceased at once.

  All eyes turned toward her.

  Senior Sister’s brows furrowed deeper.

  “Why? Does switching truly increase the chance of selecting the sheep?”

  “Yes,” Huang Xiu Xiu replied with calm certainty.

  “Why?” Senior Sister pressed.

  It was the question in everyone’s heart.

  Huang Xiu Xiu tilted her head slightly, as though searching for words.

  Unauthorized duplication: this tale has been taken without consent. Report sightings.

  After a long pause

  She shook her head.

  “I don’t know.”

  The answer stunned them all.

  “You don’t know?” Senior Sister repeated in disbelief. “Then how can you be so certain we should switch?”

  Huang Xiu Xiu blinked slowly.

  “I don’t know how to explain it,” she said at last. “But I know that switching increases the probability.”

  The chamber fell into bewildered murmurs.

  “What kind of explanation is that?”

  “Junior Sister Xiu Xiu, you must clarify!”

  “Yes, give us a reason we can understand!”

  But no matter how they urged her, she simply stood there in silence.

  Senior Sister sighed inwardly.

  Huang Xiu Xiu was a genius.

  But often, she could not articulate the logic she perceived so clearly.

  At last, Senior Sister turned her gaze to the calm young man who had yet to lose his composure.

  “Wen Shan. Can you explain? Why should we switch?”

  Meeting the crowd’s eyes, Wen Shan smiled faintly and began without haste.

  “You may have noticed that although my story resembles our current situation, there is one difference.”

  “In the story, there were only three chests. Here, we began with five orbs. Even after eliminating the Metal Orb, there were still four.”

  “However, though the numbers differ, the essence remains the same.”

  “To make it clearer, let us imagine something more extreme.”

  He lifted a finger and traced a wide arc in the air.

  “Suppose there were not five orbs—but one hundred.”

  “And among those hundred, only one is correct.”

  “If you choose one orb at random, what is your probability of being right?”

  “One in a hundred,” a disciple from the Knights’ Alliance answered immediately. “Extremely small.”

  “Precisely.” Wen Shan nodded.

  “Now imagine this: after you select one orb, I eliminate ninety-eight of the remaining ninety-nine incorrect orbs for you.”

  “Before you now are only two choices your original selection, and the single remaining orb I did not eliminate.”

  “I then offer you the chance to switch.”

  “Do you switch or not?”

  His words struck like a thunderclap.

  Understanding dawned on several faces.

  “So that’s it!” a disciple of Five Grains Mountain exclaimed, slapping his thigh. “The orb I originally chose had a tiny probability of being correct! But the other ninety-nine collectively held an overwhelmingly large probability!”

  “By eliminating ninety-eight wrong answers, you’ve effectively concentrated that large probability into the single remaining orb!”

  “If I refuse to switch, I’m wagering my tiny probability against a vastly larger one. That’s practically guaranteed failure!”

  But the Divine Iron Camp disciple frowned.

  “That’s not right,” he argued. “Once ninety-eight wrong answers are removed, that fact is fixed. Now there are only two orbs left. Shouldn’t each have a fifty percent chance? Those ninety-eight are no longer part of the equation.”

  “You’re mistaken!” the Five Grains Mountain disciple protested, red-faced but struggling to articulate why.

  “In what way am I mistaken?” the other retorted. “The past cannot be changed. We must consider the present. And the present is simply two choices.”

  The Five Grains Mountain disciple faltered, unable to formulate a rebuttal.

  Seeing the argument escalating, Wen Shan clapped his hands lightly.

  “For clarity, let me phrase it differently.”

  He smiled.

  “One hundred orbs. One correct.”

  “You are allowed a single selection.”

  “You may choose one orb.”

  “Or you may choose ninety-nine orbs at once.”

  “Which would you choose?”

  The chamber fell silent.

  The answer was obvious.

  One orb versus ninety-nine.

  Unless one’s mind was broken, the latter was unquestionably superior.

  “That,” Wen Shan said calmly, “is the essence of switching.”

  “In the sheep example, if your initial pick was the sheep, switching loses it. If your initial pick was empty, switching gains it.”

  “But with two empty chests and only one containing the sheep, the probability that you initially chose wrong is greater.”

  “Therefore, switching increases your chance of winning.”

  He turned his gaze toward Huang Xiu Xiu’s glowing green orb.

  “Initially, her chosen orb had only a twenty-five percent chance of being correct.”

  “The remaining three together held a seventy-five percent probability.”

  “Now the secret realm has eliminated two wrong answers. That seventy-five percent probability is effectively concentrated into the single remaining orb.”

  “In essence, we are comparing twenty-five percent against seventy-five percent.”

  He looked at the massive stone door.

  Looked at the Wood Orb in Huang Xiu Xiu’s hand.

  “So now tell me.”

  “Should she switch?”

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